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Morbid Risk as a Function of Age
Based on two independently ascertained family studies, the problem of analyzing disorders with
variable age of onset has been investigated by means of survival analysis. This method of approach
results in empirical risk functions which can be used directly as weights for age correction in
the analysis of pedigrees. The main interest of the present investigation was focused on the
reproducibility of such risk functions and on their specificity with respect to clinical diagnosis.
For this purpose, one family study was used as a calibration sample for estimating risk functions,
while the second family study served as test sample in order to assess the reproducibility of the
empirically derived functions.
Specificity for Clinical Diagnoses
We found the empirically derived functions from both the calibration and test samples to be indeed
comparable, thus suggesting that, for sufficiently representative calibration samples, the
differences between the two populations of (1) affected and (2) susceptible individuals may be less
than expected. As to the specificity of the risk functions, the underlying diagnostic structure of
the calibration samples (as represented by four diagnostic subgroups) could be characterized by
distinct types of risk functions, each of which, in addition, reflects the severity of the respective
affective disorder.
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Manlio Bacosi (1921-1998): Cut flowers in a vase — rapid conversion of life and beauty (oil on canvas, 35 x 45cm).
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